CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-06-30T21:45:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-30T21:45Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47199/-1
CME Note: Full halo CME currently observed only in GOES CCOR-1 and somewhat blocked by its pylon. Not yet observed in other coronagraphs due to a SOHO LASCO DSN gap between 2026-06-30T20:15Z to 2026-06-30T23:45Z, and STEREO A data gap starting at 2026-06-30T19:23Z. The source is associated with an X1.1 flare (N17W18) observed in SDO AIA 131 from AR 14479 (N16W22), peaking at 2026-06-30T20:50Z. Also observed as a NE-deflected EUV wave and wide swath of dimming in SDO AIA 193/211 centered around N20W05, brightening/flare ribbons along a channel to the NE of the region in SDO AIA 131/171/193/211/304, and a post-eruptive brightening starting around 2026-06-30T21:46Z. | Arrival signature: Shock detected in SOLAR 1, ACE, and IMAP real-time solar wind data. Using the SOLAR 1 data: B_total jumps from ~7 nT to ~11 nT, solar wind speed jumps from 395 km/s to 454 km/s, solar wind density jumps from 2.43 p/cc to 5.82 p/cc, and solar wind temperature jumps from 134k Kelvin to 187k Kelvin. Starting around 2026-07-03T18:00Z, a gradual increase from 8 to 20 nT is observed with a flux rope signature/magnetic field component stabilization following this, and wind speeds correspondingly increase from 450 km/s to 620 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-07-03T11:17Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.33

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-03T06:53Z (-6.9h, +11.9h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 78.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters.  This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model.  This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2026-06-30T21:45:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20260630-AL-008).

Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 35 ensemble members (see notes section), 35 members (100%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2026-07-02T23:57Z and 2026-07-03T17:48Z (average arrival 2026-07-03T06:53Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 78% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong).

Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://gcc02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fiswa.gsfc.nasa.gov%2FENSEMBLE%2F2026-07-01_ncmes1_sims35_M2M-SWAO088%2F20260701_013900_ncmes1_sims35_M2M-SWAO088_anim_tim-den.gif&data=05%7C02%7Cchristopher.j.stubenrauch%40nasa.gov%7C96dcc29fa0fa42531c4908ded7863261%7C7005d45845be48ae8140d43da96dd17b%7C0%7C0%7C639185168534735260%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=PI5EQduUPTgvhWM017%2BM81icLZXRz3h8i2508gWRlDw%3D&reserved=0
https://gcc02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fiswa.gsfc.nasa.gov%2FENSEMBLE%2F2026-07-01_ncmes1_sims35_M2M-SWAO088%2F20260701_013900_ncmes1_sims35_M2M-SWAO088_arrival_Earth.gif&data=05%7C02%7Cchristopher.j.stubenrauch%40nasa.gov%7C96dcc29fa0fa42531c4908ded7863261%7C7005d45845be48ae8140d43da96dd17b%7C0%7C0%7C639185168534763511%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=EQGbCKwLeUHbZx%2F4RZ5O%2BbYyl4dmZ5x5C6QCQ3h31OU%3D&reserved=0
https://gcc02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fiswa.gsfc.nasa.gov%2FENSEMBLE%2F2026-07-01_ncmes1_sims35_M2M-SWAO088%2F20260701_013900_ncmes1_sims35_M2M-SWAO088_Earth_stack.gif&data=05%7C02%7Cchristopher.j.stubenrauch%40nasa.gov%7C96dcc29fa0fa42531c4908ded7863261%7C7005d45845be48ae8140d43da96dd17b%7C0%7C0%7C639185168534781860%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=RrmTuE5Fci9CHWEGSej727%2FMDcza9wjrRnqxocAIodo%3D&reserved=0

## Notes:
This CME event is also predicted to impact BepiColombo at 2026-07-01T21:34Z, Europa Clipper at 2026-07-04T21:32Z, Juice at 2026-07-04T08:52Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-07-04T01:03Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2026-07-02T05:12Z, and STEREO A at 2026-07-03T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20260630-AL-008).

This CME event (2026-06-30T21:45:00-CME-001) is associated with X1.1 flare from AR 14479 (N17W18) with ID 2026-06-30T20:34:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-06-30T20:50Z (see notifications 20260630-AL-006, 20260630-AL-007).

Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.

Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members.

Lead Time: 43.72 hour(s)
Difference: 4.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2026-07-01T15:34Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy